Is the Worst over at Syntax-Brillian?

I think so.

Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) is still over 60% off of its all-time highs reached one year ago. 2007 was certainly an awful year for any stubborn BRLC long. (Thankfully, as I've noted before, I was on the sidelines for most of the decline.)

I jumped back in with long stock and call options when the stock was around $2.75 just about one week ago. I figured I'd give BRLC one last chance.

There's a few reasons why I think now is a fine time to buy back in. As I've previously posted, there was some speculation that there could be a buyout or merger that may affect BRLC, whether with Vizio or another company. Those whispers have settled down, but since the stock price is so depressed, it's still an attractive takeover target.

The stock is so cheap. It's current price/sales ratio is just .4 - compare that to the 14 p/s ration of Google. The unbelievable p/s ratio shows that the stock has plenty of room to run. Anything under 1 is dirt-cheap, while a high-growth stock like BRLC can have an acceptable ratio with a low-single-digit figure.

During late 2007, the stock price was probably depressed even further by tax-loss sellers. During December, lots of the negative and sideways price action was due to these chronic sellers.

The price of BRLC shares have started to tick up in the last few sessions. Coming off of a low around $2.50 on December 19th, Syntax shares are up over 20%. Each of the last six sessions have been positive. It's clear that this is BRLC's most significant, long-lasting upward action since it began its final downward slide this fall. Excluding the $1 one-day bounce in October, there had been no serious upward action whatsoever. But now, the stock has strung together a week of gains and just crossed through the 50-day moving average. Based on a history of BRLC, seen below, this may be very significant.

BRLC has clearly had its ups and downs over the years. But one pattern is undeniable; once BRLC breaks through the 50-day moving average (the blue line) after a long drop, it doesn't look back. In both the spring of 2005 and summer of 2006, BRLC lost much of its value, crossed the 50-day, and went on to set a new all-time high. I'm not going to start saying that BRLC will be at $15 in three months, but this does seem to signal the end of the bearish cycles.

All of that is just tecnical, too. It ignores the chance of BRLC blowing away holiday sales statistics or any other positive news. So there's many reasons for BRLC to trek up from this point; cheap valuation, buyout potential, positive earnings potential, the change in charting indicators, and the fact that it's still down so significantly from its high. BRLC had been tossed around (rightly so, at some points, when management failed shareholders) for a long time; now, it's time to turn its act around.

I can see BRLC doubling in 2008. Is it guaranteed? Certainly not. Is it possible? All signs point to yes.





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Is Crocs biting back?

I loathed Crocs (CROX) during this summer and fall, as trendy investors engaged in a feedeing frenzy, inflating the price of the quirky shoemaker. I did not take joy in the stock's plunge, but I felt as if it was justified.

However, CROX is now an attractive prospect. After a massive, painful decline from $75 to $35, CROX had returned to earth from it's lofty orbit. At that point, it was trading at a forward P/E of about 15 - cheap for such a high-growth stock.

Investing in high-growth niche stocks like CROX can be tricky, or even disastrous. (I briefly owned Heely's, a similar, trendy shoemaker, selling eventually for a small loss.) Once a former high-flyer like CROX falls, it's often hard to establish a floor.

But, I decided to take a risk. I liked CROX at $35; I thought it was significantly oversold.






So when it was in the high $30's, I bought December 42.5 calls. I just closed the position today.

11/30/07

Bought

CQJ LV Call Crocs Inc $42.50 Exp 12/22/07

$1.10

12/07/07

Sold

CQJ LV Call Crocs Inc $42.50 Exp 12/22/07

$4.20

The stock certainly recovered nicely, bouncing up about $4, or 10% in one week.

After selling my $42.5 calls, I deciced to reinitiate an options position, and purchased December $47.5 calls for $1.40/contract.

This investment, in my opinion, is attractive for two reasons; fundimentals, and momentum.

As I previously discussed, CROX was ridiculously overvalued at $75. When they announced earnings, which weren't even bad, the expectations of speculators were crushed, and as Jim Cramer shouted "SELL" on Mad Money, investors dumped the stock. (That wasn't a direct shot at Jim - though he had been pumping up the stock on its way up, a panicked investor that sold on his advice would have not endured the full losses). CROX fell over $25 the first day after earnings, and continued its downward slide for another two weeks before stabalizing.

Now, CROX has an attractive long-term vaulation. The shoes are still selling well, as consumers snatch up the trendy, colorful, albeit unusual clogs. During the last conference call, the company still called for strong growth, just not strong enough to justify a 40 forward P/E. CROX is also releasing clothing to compliment their product line, using lightweight material; if the clothing is as revolutionary (or intreuging) as the shoes, sales could become supercharged.

I usually wouldn't touch a stock if I didn't believe its long term prospects were respectable, so CROX passes that test. However, the real reason why I'm playing with some options is because CROX is (or was) a hot momentum stock. Now that CROX is well off its low (and up in 4 out of the last 5 sessions), individual investors who had sworn off CROX might be attempted to jump back in.

I don't think a valuation of $75/share is reasonable, but CROX still definitely has room to run. The average prediction of next year's earnings is $2.69/share. The current forward P/E is just 17, which I'd consider pretty low for a company expected to grow 40% next year and at 26% over the next 5 years.

I'd start to find CROX a little overpriced with a forward P/E in the mid-20's. However, the stock still has lots of ground to cover before then. With a forward P/E of 20, CROX would trade around $54/share. Assuming a forward multiple of 22.5, that would make CROX a $60 stock.

My December options will expire too soon to enjoy all of CROX's potential price increase. But, even as a value-oriented longer-term investor, I think CROX is an attractive buy-and-hold at this current valuation. CROX may be cold-blooded now, but I think it's going to bask in the sun.

People Love Ignoring Valuations: BWLD vs. CMG

The events of last night and today, concerning two stocks, literally baffle me.

The two stocks are Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).

Both companies reported earnings last night.

CMG came into earnings trading at a 80 trailing P/E and a 50+ forward P/E. Perfection is clearly already priced in. BWLD, on the other hand, traded at a much more modest 40 trailing, high-20s-forward P/E. It wasn't cheap, but it was clearly cheapER.

Chipotle reported numbers that were in-line with estimates. They had a mixed future outlook; they plan to open new stores internationally, but at the same time, existing store sales are expected to fall from 12% this past quarter, to "high single digits" for all of 2007, to "low to mid-single digits" for 2008.

Though the new stores will be a source of growth, a company cannot expand infinitely. Don't you think investors might be shaken by the bleak outlook for future same-store sales growth?

At the same time, Buffalo Wild Wings reported revenue that met the street's expectations, with earnings that were just two pennies lower. They, however, reiterated their forecast for next year: 15% unit growth, 20% revenue growth, and 25% earnings growth. (They had the same goals this year, and have met them thus far). There are some minor challenges, like gambling licenses in Las Vegas and higher prices due to bigger wings. However, the overall outlook was very promising without any glaring problem.


So how did Wall Street react to these two different reports? Logically, you'd expect BWLD to be flat, or even up, while CMG seems like it should be flat or down.

However, rationality is apparently dead amongst investors.


Buffalo Wild Wings dropped almost 30% at one point. Currently, it's trading down 20%.
Chipotle is UP $5, or 4%.

To me, this is literally insane. How do investors see any value in a company with a 55 forward P/E? Yes, the company is growing quickly, but it can't grow as quickly forever, and mature companies DON'T have P/Es of 55.

McDonalds has a forward P/E of 19. Yum Brands (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco bell, and more) has a forward P/E of 21.

Buffalo Wild Wings is now trading at that same valuation - a 21 forward P/E. The company is supposed to grow at 25% - much better than YUM's 17%.

Chipotle has grown very quickly over the past, but is only predicted to grow at about the same 25% next year.



As a value oriented investor, I'm buying BWLD. I actually purchased some after-hours yesterday (because I thought at 15% decline after the non-awful numbers was a little dramatic), and I picked up some more today after it dropped a few more points.


I have no position in CMG, but I wouldn't be long right now. Who knows, maybe hysteria will pump CMG to 160 while BWLD hangs around 30 for the next month or two. But as a long-term value investor, I see value in Buffalo Wild Wings, and nothing but hype in Chipotle.

Christmas in December: Fed Aftermath

Investors that held long positions as of 2:14 Tuesday should appreciate Mr. Bernanke's decisions. The interest rate cut catalyzed a rally that has now lasted two sessions and 3-4%.

I personally can thank him for some investing success. I had purchased September calls for Abercrombie (ANF) and Hovnanian (HOV) about a month ago, when they were both close to the respective strike prices (80 and 12.5). In the month, they were flat or down, and my options were going to expire worthless.

However, Mr. Bernanke came to the rescue and surprised the market with a 50 basis point cut. Both Abercrombie and Hovnanian shot up, and the contracts became in-the-money. (Interestingly, I half-jokingly predicted with almost 100% accuracy the Hovnanian gains; read my post here.)

Anyway, just because I should disclose this anyway, I sold my options in both Abercrombie and Hovnanian, and I sold my equity position in Hovnanian today with a well-executed stop-loss order. For the record, I still love the homebuilder's prospect's for the future; I will be looking for a lower reentry point sometime very soon. However, I feel the run-up to 15 was largely unmerited and a bit of a chain-reaction, so I'm currently waiting on the sidelines for things to settle down.

Thanks to Mr. Bernanke, my personal portfolio was up 10% on Tuesday, and I am now exactly even for the quarter. (Prior losses in Hovnanian, Syntax-Brillian, and others had hurt my performance).

Looking ahead, I am uncertain; the crystal ball that I used to predict the rally Tuesday is now out of commission. I watched Mad Money tonight for the first time in a while, and Cramer predicted that this is just the beginning of a huge bull market. I can't say that I agree with taht statement; with still-unresolved (and possibly still worsening) housing/credit problems in the United States and Europe, I don't think the world markets are financially sound enough to have an organic, fundamentally-based rally. The euphoria from the interest rate cuts may last a few more sessions, then people will probably start to profit-take.

My advice? Keep your eyes on the long-term prize. I'm long Toyota (it's the biggest position in my portfolio, at about 20% of assets). It is down a couple bucks from where I bought it in the middle of the summer, and frankly, I'm not too sure it's going to go up significantly anytime soon (due to the possibly-weakening economy, tight credit, etc). However, I'm 97% sure that in two or three years, based simply on fundamentals, Toyota could easily be a $200 stock.

Trying to profit from volatility is tempting, and if you succeed, congratulations. But if you look at the world's greatest investors - people like Warren Buffet - they seek out great values, and great companies, and reap great returns.