More Positive ETFC News

Since I wrote about ETFC last week, shares have crept up from $.66 to $1 (in pre-market action this morning; last night's close was $.91).

The Wall Street Journal put out a little article this morning discussing a few monthly updates that ETFC released today. The article may (or may not, depending on if it's subscription-based) be seen here.

Not only did trading volume stay steady, but more importantly, loan delinquencies among its portfolio are on the DECLINE. "The company said Wednesday delinquencies of 30 to 89 days have fallen 16% in the first two months of the current quarter, while delinquencies of 30 to 179 days are down 1%."

That is obviously wonderful news for ETFC. They have already provided loss provisions far beyond realized losses, so if things are bottoming (or improving) now, they might not have to increase provisions anymore, allowing them to return to profitability. This may sound a little crazy, but maybe write-ups are hiding in the not-too-distant future.



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Adding to TMA

I wrote last week about my trading of TMA; I bought a position at $1.35 and sold a third of that position near $3. I decided to let the rest ride this crisis out.

However, today, I couldn't resist putting my hand back in the cookie jar. I bought back the shares I sold at $1.62.

Once again, just like the first time I bought it, TMA has had a huge intra-day fall. Today, it was on news that I thought wasn't bad - it made a deal with its lenders that allows TMA to stop having to sell off its assets.

The deal today did directly dilute shareholder value - it gave the lenders options to buy about a quarter of the company's shares for $.01. But at the same time, it may have allowed TMA to avoid losing even more value, through the sales of its low-risk, quality mortgages at bargain-basement prices. The deal made lenders freeze requests for margin calls for the next year, which should allow TMA to sit on the sidelines and let this crisis play out.

So even if the deal today did reduce shareholder value by 25%, the stock is off more than 40%. I must admit, my appetite for risk is enormous... But I couldn't resist some more TMA.


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My Economic Stimulus Plan

Later today, President Bush is supposed to discuss his plan to stimulate our "weakening economy."

His plan is likely to give money back to individual taxpayers and ease business liabilities, stimulating both consumers and industry. Bush proposed rebates of up to $800 for individuals or $1600 for families, while lawmakers wanted to lessen that amount and limit who receives it (Yahoo! Finance article).

I think that this plan is stupid.

Maybe it will help the economy a little bit if each family of four goes out and purchases four new iPhones. However, I think that a simple injection of money into the economy through intending to increase consumer spending is short-sided and futile.

Instead, I believe that the government, if they are going to aid anyone, should look at the corporations.

Over the past days, weeks, and months, foreign sovereign funds have injected billions of dollar into US corporations. Most of the major financial companies have received large investments from outside sources. Japan's major investment banks are reportedly pooling billions of dollars for investment in a struggling Wall Street counterpart.

I'm not an isolationist, but why let wealth leave our country when we could easily keep it here?

Instead of dishing out money for people to buy new purses, the government should focus on preserving stock market capital, and thus, the value of millions of individual Americans' investments.

If the government doesn't want to directly purchase equity or bonds like foreign investors have been doing, there are much easier solutions; provide long-term, low-interest loans or simply open the discount window, repercussion-free, at a rock bottom interest rate (say, 2%). However, as long as qualified financial analysts looked it over beforehand, putting $20 billion of Social Security money into Wall Street could end up being an excellent long-term investment.

If the government is still interested in helping individuals, they should help financially-responsible people who were romanced into adjustable-rate mortgages. I'm sorry, if you bought a $500,000 house on $30,000 of annual income, I don't think that you deserve to keep it. However, for someone with a steady job who just can't make the adjusted-up payments, the government could step in to help those individuals.

First, the government could work through the mortgage broker to negotiate a new rate that the borrower can pay and will still provide profit for the lender. That way, everyone wins; shareholders of the big banks (BAC, who will soon own Countrywide, etc) won't unjustly miss out on profit that was already accounted for, while individuals will face a more reasonable repayment rate.

My last article discussed how the US economy is already contracting; if it's not, it's certainly slowing down. Discussing ways to improve economic conditions is the right thing to do, but simply handing consumers a check isn't.

Help out the people that truly need help - from Joe Dirt's adjustable mortgage to Merrill's write downs, there's better ways to fix the economy than to hand me $800.




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