It's a Wonderful Day

...When you're almost irresponsibly long AIG, ETFC, and energy.

I've never listed my full portfolio here and I don't plan to, but here are some things that I have been doing lately:

• I sold more of my once-huge BWLD position today as the stock notched a new 52-week high. I still hold some BWLD, but the stock is definitely fairly valued here, so there are better opportunities for this money elsewhere.
• I sold COP $75 calls this morning that I had purchased during the oil panic of last week. I bought the contracts for $.40 and sold for $1.70 - having a nice win after losing on my TTWO position definitely helped.
• Speaking of TTWO, I bought equity earlier this week at $15.50, but my big options position will expire worthless this afternoon. Long-term prospects are great and share valuation is ridiculously low, but I don't expect a near-term catalyst (or at least I'm not willing to bet on one via options after getting burned).
• I progressively backed up the truck with AIG this week, buying different lots at different times. My first purchase was at $7.50 - ouch. But thanks to averaging down, my average cost is now $3.25/share. In addition to the temporary end of short selling and general euphoria, shares are rallying today as some investors are attempting to block the government's dilution of the company. I see it as a win-win; even if the company is diluted and liquidates, the sum of parts is much greater than the current valuation (I have seen $10 cited as a reasonable estimate). If the government agrees to less or no dilution (considering that the 11% interest on the $80 billion loan should provide them with some nice income anyway), shares will obviously be worth even more.
• I added to my CIT position today (increased it by 75%, it's still a small portion of my portfolio) when the stock was down earlier in the day. Wells Fargo provided CIT with a $500 million line of credit yesterday; I see that as a sign of confidence and relatively-clean books. Also, CIT has asket to be added to the list of companies that can't be shorted (I don't understand why it was left off in the first place). If their request is granted, the near-term floor should be right here at 10.
• I added to my ETFC position earlier this week; my average cost is now just above $3. Like CIT, ETFC has done a better-than-average job of selling assets to create a capital cushion, and their retail business is thriving. Continued writedowns on mortgage-based assets they still hold may be a short-term issue, but I see no bankruptcy risk anymore, which the market still seems to imply.
• Other energy: At the end of last week, I held COP, MRO, and CEO shares. I sold the COP earlier this week to avoid a margin call, but still hold MRO and CEO, with costs of about $40 and $118. $100 oil seems to be the sweet spot for integrated companies (MRO), and CEO (CNOOC, a Chinese oil company) doesn't have to deal with as many government controls as PetroChina does. It also pays a nice 5% dividend.

I have a few other positions, but that covers my major actions of the past two weeks. With all of the aforementioned purchases, I have fairly long-term timeframe; with a predator-free trading environment for the next few weeks and ample government-provided liquidity, financials may finally get their act together.

Interesting Week for Oil...This Time, I'm Playing for Real

Oil prices snuck higher today, but the real action should be forthcoming.

OPEC begins meeting tomorrow, and the usual troublemakers (Venezuela, Iran) are looking to milk some more money from their barrels. The cool, calm, and in-control Saudis will be expected to propose holding production steady. As oil rose exponentially earlier this summer, Saudi economists and oil ministers affirmed that they believed that $80-100 was a good price for oil, but as barrels begin to approach that range, they too may step up the rhetoric a little bit. Countries like Venezuela and Iran have called oil too cheap, but the Saudis control enough of OPEC production to really be the deciding party.

Though any big change in production is unlikely to occur, the degree of rhetoric may have some influence on market movements going forward starting tomorrow.

And as news outlets have informed you, there's another hurricane brewing in the Atlantic - Ike. Ike just crossed Cuba and weakened, and it will cross again, but at some point it will enter the gulf and (supposedly) begin to strengthen. Right now, the track takes Ike into the middle of Texas, a little south of Houston. If this forecast proves accurate, then oil and gas production will be disrupted.

Wednesday is the weekly inventory report, and the numbers will be a little funny due to our ol' pal Gustav. However, Gustav didn't affect production or refining to the extent that was originally expected (hence the big drop in energy prices after my post about it), so the numbers may be bearish.

With my funds, I took a long position via my favorite vehicle - Conoco Calls. Unfortunately for me, Conoco announced a big, expensive parternership dealing with Liquified Natural Gas in Australia last night, so COP shares fell while those of other oil companies rose today.

Last time I was dead wrong; Gustav was a dud (relatively speaking - unfortunately, peoples in ocean countries beared the brunt of the once-powerful storm). This time, multiple events will be in play. I'm taking the contrarian stance - it's in my nature, for better or worse - after energy prices and related shares have fallen dramatically over the past two months. A quick pop tomorrow, Wednesday, or anytime soon, and I'm out - I'm still not convinced that oil's true value is $108/barrel.



To follow up:

As oil shares crashed on Tuesday, I bought shares of COP around $70 and Marathon Oil (MRO) Around $41 as long-term purchases. It looks like crude and oil equities will open lower today, but oil companies are looking dirty cheap.

Straddling an Airplane

I have written posts in the past about utilizing my favorite options strategy, the straddle , when big news is due to be released.

In the past, I have set up a straddle (or strangle, which is a sort of higher-volatility straddle) before big oil news like OPEC supply decisions. I've used them on Chevron and ConocoPhillips in the past, reaping decent returns.

For those who may not know, a straddle is done by purchasing (or selling, but I always purchase) both a call and a put option at the same strike price for one security. The bet you are placing is that the stock will trade wildly - it doesn't matter in which direction, it just has to move.

In the last hour of trading today, I set up a straddle on Boeing (BA). Today they said that the would be updating Wall Street on the progress of their Dreamliner jet on Wednesday.

The Dreamliner promises to be the best plane on the market, but first-flight and delivery dates have already been pushed back. Many analysts expect the delivery date (or at least the bulk of total deliveries) to be pushed back. (Much of this has to do with the high-tech nature of the plane, as it is apparently hard to source the many specialized components.)

Anyway, right as BA was trading around the $75 mark, I bought an equal amount of April $75 calls and puts. The total cost for each 1call/1put straddle was $310 (including commission).

So, for this trade to be successful, Boeing has to move more than $3 up or down between now and April 18th. (If it jumps after the announcement Wednesday, there will still be some time value left, but much of that $1.50 price is the manifestation of the volatility due to the announcement).

So I don't know if the news will be good or bad on Wednesday, but that doesn't matter. I just think that it'll send the stock up or down more than 5% over the next two weeks. As long as something important or controversial is said, then this trade should yield a nice return.



"I trade with TradeKing: $4.95 stock and options trades, plus lots of tools. It's simply the best way to invest. Click here to find out more.

Introducing Two New Paper Pprtfolios

First, my apologies for the delay between new posts. This week featured 3 midterm exams, so I had to tend to the responsibilities of being a student.


I've created two new paper portfolios on UpDown.com - the StudentStocks Fund and the StudentStocks Commodities Account.

The Fund will feature short-, mid- and long-term plays on valuations and fundamentals. I'm assembling the portfolio as I write this, so when an initial makeup is structured, I'll post the components.

The commodities account is a trading account, as I try to exploit (gamble/guess) the movement of commodities. Right now, I own DUG (ultrashort oil and gas), and have shorted ConocoPhillips, KOL (Coal ETF), CNX (a coal producer), GDX (Gold Producers) and GLD (a gold ETF).

So i'm currently betting on a pop/deflation of the current energy bubble. As prices swing from high to low, I'll change sides of positions.

I plan to update performance from both accounts approximately weekly; hopefully, I'll produce some good, tradeable ideas for readers.

UpDown.com is a free paper-trading site where you can earn real money. If you're interested in opening an account, email me!



"I trade with TradeKing: $4.95 stock and options trades, plus lots of tools. It's simply the best way to invest. Click here to find out more."

Follow up to COP/OPEC trade

Just to follow up, (and for the sake of full disclosure),

I closed my Strangle trade yesterday. ConocoPhillips (COP) moved up, the calls increased in value, and I sold the calls, netting a 16% gain in three days, including commission costs. I still hold the puts (which are now nearly worthless at 11 cents), which I could have sold to make another 3% gain. (I'm holding just so that, if COP falls, I might milk a little more money out of this trade.)

16% doesn't sound like much, but annualized, it was a 1920% return. (Also, if I would have traded more contracts, commission costs would have been lower per contract and the percentage gain would have been slightly larger).

This was a sort of experiment for me, and my "long strange" worked as planned. If you see the potential for volatility in a stock, this is a good strategy to consider.

Strangle OPEC, Make Money.

The fluctuating, inflated price of oil has held the attention of businessmen and lay people alike. Oil's price run-up has certainly been impressive; from a low near $10/barrel in the late 1990's, oil flirted with $100 just last week. This dramatic increase was only rivaled by the price spikes after the oil embargoes and crises in the 1970's and 80's. Just this year, oil is up 30%.

The cause of this increase is debatable. Sure, the incredible growth in China, India, and other emerging economies will strain the production capabilities of the world. But did it really merit such a dramatic increase?

I'll let professional economists and commodities experts argue over the causes and effects of $100 oil. But I think that the average investor can profit off of the volatility in oil.

Oil has retreated from nearly $100 to about $90 per barrel. But where will oil go from here?

Wednesday may be the day that clearly defines a trend. Two defining events will happen this December 5th. First, the weekly oil inventory report will be released, and this week's numbers could be effected by the pipeline explosion late last week. If inventories significantly declined at Cushing, the delivery point for the Nymex contract, that could be a catalysts for a pop back to $100.

The more significant event will be OPEC's meeting in the United Arab Emirates on the same day, this Wednesday, December 5th. Much of the developed world is looking for OPEC to increase production quotas to ease prices. However, with the recent 10% decline in the price of oil (the steepest and quickest in years), OPEC may not be motivated to hike their output. Unless a major event occurs tomorrow, I see oil staying stationary into the two announcements yesterday.

So two possibilities exist:

• On one extreme, US inventory was steady (or even increased) and OPEC decides to increase production. If those happened together, the price of oil may plummet.
  
• However, if inventories are pinched and OPEC deems current production sufficient, then the price of oil could be back near record territory, considering the market is already pricing in a production increase.
  

I don't know what's going to happen, so I chose to be insulated either way.

I set up a "Strangle" options scheme, using my favorite oil stock, ConocoPhillips. When the stock was trading around $80 today, I bought $75 puts and $85 calls. The calls were about half as expensive as the puts, so I bought twice as much. (Also, I have a tendency to expect upward price movement simply because the oil stocks have declined considerably recently.)

The puts were $63/contract, and the double-strength calls were $78 for two. The at-the-money calls and puts both trade for around $2/contract. So, as long as Conoco moves $5 either way, the transaction will be profitable. (If it moves to the upside, which I made a slight bet on, It'll be a little more lucrative).

Using a "Straddle" (at-the-money calls and puts with the same strike price) or a "Strangle" (out-of-the-money calls and puts at opposing strike prices) can allow a trader to profit off of the volatility of a stock, no matter which way it may move.

Since my crystal ball is out of order, I don't know if oil is going to be up, down, or flat on and after this Wednesday. But as long as something happens and oil moves in one direction, this trade should profit from an unpredictable market.

Oil is Bubbling

As I alluded to in my longer posts about oil, I stated that there was some potential for some short-term upside, due to today's inventory report and pending Fed rate-cut decision.

I pointed out that when inventory reports were negative, they were dismissed as irrelevant, but when bullish, they were said to be the most important data ever. That was supported today; a slight decline in inventory popped oil up to a new record high.

Thankfully, I'm still holding my COP calls.

If the Fed cuts this afternoon, oil could go even higher.

It's a matter of momentum vs. fundamentals. As an investor that tries to trade on fundamentals, oil shouldn't be $94. However, just like in a stock like BIDU or CMG, momentum can, and will, push the price higher even when its illogical.

I think I'm going to hang tight in my COP calls position until after the Fed reports. I don't know when to exit... it's so hard to predict when people will realize that this price is ludicrous. Oil may very well hit $100 within a week, but I want to keep reaffirming that in 3 months, I think it'll be closer to $70.

Rubbing my Crystal Ball

There's some major (and minor) events in the next few days that I'm going to try to predict here.

First, since I've been following the stock (with no position) lately, I'll comment on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), releasing earnings after the bell today:

I think they're going to meet current estimates, and possibly revise downward for the future. But even if they meet or slightly exceed, watch out for a negative reaction, as the stock has a 80 trailing and 50 forward P/E.



Oil was down over 3% today, a huge deal as it's been hitting new highs lately. Tomorrow's going to be a big day. Inventory reports come out in the morning, and the Fed will release the new funds rate at 2:15. If inventory shrinks and the Fed cuts, watch for today's losses to be wiped away. If inventory increases and the Fed keeps rates steady, watch out for further price declines. Read my previous article about the bubble in the current price of oil; the second scenario I outlined could be the catalyst for a major price correction. I'm looking to get out of my Conoco calls, and get into some Exxon or Chevron puts....

...because both Exxon and Chevron report earnings later this week, and they will probably disappoint, as Conoco, BP, and other companies have done thus far. Refining margins were terrible during the 3rd quarter, squeezing profits. A bad quarter and falling profits could mean a major drop in oil stocks, which have enjoyed 20+% price increases this year.

So, concerning oil, I think that the Fed cuts .25%, oil is flat after a flat inventory report, but begins to weaken during the winter season.. I think I'm going to get some long-term puts, and see how that works out for me.

Disclosure: Long Marathon Oil stock, Conoco Calls. Could become long puts at some time soon.

Oil Price: A Real Gusher

I'm actually taking a class on the history of oil right now; it's quite interesting.

But anyway, to the point:

In overnight electronic trading, oil is now putting up new record highs. As of the most recent quite while I'm writing this, it's over $93/barrel, up over $1 from its previous high.

(In the short term, this could be good for me... I currently own some ConocoPhillips calls, and on most otherwise-newsless days, the price of oil stocks will track the price of oil).

However, as I published earlier, I that there is no merit to these inflated prices. Just this weekend, Barrons published their own articles about how the price of oil is looking quite high. There are some tensions in the Middle East right now, but there's really no tangible reason for oil to be setting new daily highs.

One of the dumbest price-triggers of the previous week's run-up was the midweek inventory report that propped up the price 3%.

During the previous weeks, the reports had been bearish, as inventories grew. The bulls that spin the media wrote off the reports as unimportant, when considering the big picture.

Then, the first report that shows a decline in inventory sends the price skyrocking. It's really illogical and dumb.

That's why I'm trying to milk this bubble for all it is worth. I owned some Conoco puts going into earnings, and about $5 of negative price movement nearly tripled my options. As the stock appeared to be bottoming out (I did a good job predicting the bottom, within about $1) I switched to some calls, as the price of oil is now trending upwards.

So, as I said when oil was $10 cheaper, there's really no fundimental reason for oil to be this expensive. If you're an experienced trader/investor, maybe think about playing the swings, like I am. If you're a long term-oriented investor, I'd suggest getting into one of the oil companies with lower P/Es - like Conoco - or just sitting on the sidelines for a while. I truly believe that oil is quite overvalued, but there's no telling if, or when, people will come to their senses.

Barrons recommended avoiding Petrochina; It's P/E is in the 20s, versus about 8-11 for the big American companies. It's tempting to get into a hot, well-performing Chinese stock, but I'd recommend staying on the sidelines, too.

Black Monday 2: October 22, 2007

Note: The chance of this actually happening is minute. This isn't a prediction of what WILL happen, but just speculation over an event that has a tiny chance of occurring.


Investors marked the 20th anniversary of Black Monday on Friday by selling off each of the major exchanges by 2-3%. Bad earnings may have initially triggered the downturn, but it seemed as though investors simply wanted to mark the anniversary with a decline.

However, as the official anniversary passes, I think that the conditions now are the most reminiscent of 1987. If there was or is a time to speculate about a crash, that time is this weekend.

Here's why:

During the week preceeding the crash, the Dow lost about 10% of its value. This past week was not nearly as bad, as the market lost a little less than 5%, or about 600 points. Though not as severe as a drop, it still bears a very eerie resemblance to what happened then. Here's a chart of the Dow over the past week:

Not a pretty chart.

As it's been stated in every other writeup about a potential 2007 crash, the general market conditions are similar; high oil, weakening dollar, and more.


So, why do I think that there's a slight chance of a crash (or correction) in the future?

First, the emotional aspect to this coming Monday. As I am writing this post, a front-page article on MarketWatch.com compares this past week to the week proceeding the crash. As analytical articles of 1987 state "investors had a weekend to ponder losses from the week before," now, today's investors are pondering this week's losses in light of 1987. There's certainly possibility of an irrational, emotionally-driven over reaction on Monday.

The other thing that increases the possibility of a crash, and concerns me, is the high valuations of certain stocks and industries. It's true that the overall market valuation today is less than it was in 1987, with P/Es then higher than they are today.

However, certain sections of the markets have rich valuations: popular tech companies like Apple, Google, VMWare, Amazon.com, and Research in Motion all trade at 30-80 forward P/Es. A 10-20% shaving off of the top of any of those stocks would not be uncalled for.

If Apple or Google were to lose 15% of its value, it could easily trigger a ripple-effect sell off through the broader market. Those tech heroes both represent the current bull market and actually hold lots of investors assets, many of whom may have purchased recently as companies are making new all-time highs. Investors may sell off early to minimize losses, and this effect could be worsened by stop-limit orders that some investors have in place.

Lots of Chinese companies are similarly situated; speculation over the high-growth stocks has created rich valuations, and as the recent 50+% decline in some solar stocks shows, losing a significant amount of value in a very short period of time could occur.


This hypothetical crash would probably begin the same way that 1987's Black Monday did: US investors wake up to news of major, but not crash-level, sell offs in Asian and European markets, in response to US losses on Friday and their own sky-high valuations. (With India's market losing 10% of its value in one day just a week ago, and with Shanghai doing the same earlier this year, a 10% decline on any Asian market isn't too unrealistic).

American investors, shaken by the 5% drop last week and the 5-10% Asian drop overnight, coupled with the emotional fear of a repeat of Black Monday, start selling as soon as the premarket opens. Baidu falls $100, or 33%. Google loses 15%. Apple (who releases earning after the bell, which everyone now forgets about) is down 15% too. Banks, who reported bad earnings this past week, would mirror this fall due to financial fears. Investment banks, with lots of money tied up in mortgages and tech stocks, would also begin to suffer.

A wave of selling has spread throughout the entire market by noon. The tech-heavy, high-PE Nasdaq loses 15%. The Dow and S&P don't fare as poorly, but both are down about 10% too. Things could get very, very ugly.




Now that my scenario is outlined, do I believe that this WILL happen? No. If I did, 70% of my money wouldn't currently be long in equities. I do own puts in ConocoPhillips and the SPDR ETF, so I have slightly insulated my positions against a big loss. But if I thought a crash was inevitable, I'd be 100% cash, or puts, or shorted stock.

The possibility of a 1% gain tomorrow is much, much bigger than the prospect of a 10% loss, but I just figured I'd chronicle my thoughts as every investor is nervously awaiting Monday. Do I want a crash to happen? Absolutely not. But, as my position in SPDR puts suggests, I do expect a correction in the reasonable future, and wouldn't be absolutely shocked with a more sudden drop.

Two quick thoughts: Electronic Arts and Oil

I'll post full writeups on both of these topics within the coming days, but I wanted to publicize some thoughts now.

First:

Electronic Arts is one of the best video game stocks to own this year going into the holidays.

• Madden and NCAA are still selling well
• SKATE displaced Tony Hawk as the best/most popular skateboarding video game
• "Orange Box" is being heavily advertised; apparently, it's one of the best games of the year
• Rock Band, a competitor to/improvement on Guitar Hero, goes on sale for christmas
• Halo 3 has put more consoles in homes, Wii still selling well, PS3 price going to be cut

Sure, based on P/E, ERTS is richly valued, and as a value investor, that's always something to be cautious about. I don't think this is a buy-and-hold-forever situation, but I think EA is going to perform well through the christmas season. Stop back for a full writeup within a few days.



Secondly, oil prices are unbelievable.

I originally wrote about oil needing to correct when it was at 82 (and it did - I held CVX and then COP puts, and ended up not selling soon enough and approximately breaking even).
Now, after little significant news, it's at 90. It touched 90 during aftermarket/electronic trading just a few hours ago. Unless this passing of this psychological barrier encourages buying (which, at this point, I would not be surprised at), I think oil simply has to fall. The price of oil, as well as the price of oil stocks, SHOULD fall soon. Here are a few reasons why:

• Chance of a production-disrupting hurricane now is slim to none
• Driving season ending
• Warm winter predicted
• Refining margins evaporating.
  

Since $80, most professionals have been saying there is really no significant supply issues or current events to support this price. Just tonight, this article posted at Bloomberg.com states that 20 out of 29 professional analysts polled believe that oil will fall within the next week. The article asserts that futures demand (aka, demand by traders who do not actually buy oil) is increasing, while actual worldwide demand for physical oil really isn't.

So rationally, I think, we should see sub-$80 (maybe sub $70) oil this winter. Does that mean it WILL happen? No. As I stated, paper demand, not physical demand, is responsible for these current inflated prices.

As long as the dollar doesn't collapse, or there is no World War III, there is no reason for oil to remain at these current levels.

Recent Happenings

As I stated in my last post, I currently have carpal tunnel (or some similar injury) so I can't type at length right now. But I wanted to update on some of my recent happenings:

I bought some Vonage (VN) at $1.00. It was up $.12 today, to $1.15. I think it's both a decent long term prospect, and i'm playing the bounce. If it continues upward quickly, I may dump and profit-take.

Our old friend Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) was interestingly up 25% out of nowhere today. Though I'm long, I suspect today's gain was due to a short squeeze, and may be short lived. But I hope I'm wrong.

I also purchased some Pantry (PTRY). Its stock has been up like an unbelievable 1000% or something over the last few years; I read lots of articles about it maybe six months ago. Now, it's down off of its 52-week high of 60, and only a couple bucks off of its low, and at a P/E of 13, this growth stock is now looking cheap.

I also picked up just once contract of November Calls for Nutrisystem (NTRI). They're the company that runs ads with Dan Marino and other jocks, with the pre-made food. They missed earnings and revised downward a little bit, and the stock fell 33%. It is an overreaction, to a growing brand, and I'm looking for both a bounce and a long-term gain.

Lastly, I'm currently long some ConocoPhillips (COP) puts. The company has already moved significantly, and the options are in the money. If the price of oil eases a little, it could drop like a rock. If oil keeps facing resistance at $80, I'm going to profit-take soon... I don't want to be blindsided by a hurricane or Iranian air strike that causes oil to go to $100/barrel.

That's all for now,
Stephen

P.S> bookmark this site!

Oil Bubble about to Burst

Other than the huge rate cut, what else has been in the investment news every day lately? The answer is the increasing price of oil. Even as the stock market rallied through the end of the week, the price of oil kept rising, hitting a all-time actual dollar (non-inflation-adjusted) high, before losing a little ground in the little of the week.

There's a few things causing this high price; MidEast instability, hurricanes in the Atlantic, and some supply/demand issues in the United States. However, I feel as though oil (and oil stocks) are currently overpriced, and are set to correct as soon as the price of oil does.

Sure, predicting a peak is difficult, but I think that you don't have to be exactly right to profit off of this current oil bubble. As the chart below (of Exxon [XOM]) demonstrates, the stock's price is quite volitile and moves quickly and significantly as the price of oil changes.


Now here's a chart of the price of oil, over approximately the same period:

The correlation is obvious, and consistent. Also, on the chart of the price of oil, you can see how the current price run-up has increased volume, and therefore, speculation.


On Exxon's chart, you can see how as the price of oil declined earlier in the summer, the stock lost about 15% of its value in a rather quick period. That's exactly the decline that I foresee happening soon, and that I aim to profit from.

In the next week, I think the price of oil may stay steady; there's a few areas in the tropics that may turn into storms, which always cause jitters and cause the price of energy to rise. However, summer driving season is now over, and as gasoline prices rise to reflect the current price of oil, people will be further discouraged from driving, decreasing demand.

So, as I feel as though the price of oil is going to flatten and drop (it may already be happening now, as the price was down marginally on Friday the 21st), I'm going to try to initiate a short position in a big oil producer, or just buy some put options. There's lots of companies that I could see this working for: Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are some names that come to mind. Also, iShares has an ETF made up of lots of oil companies with the symbol IXC - it may be an option to get into the general market without the risk associated with a specific company.

Overall, I think that the price of oil is going to continue to rise in the long term, until alternative energies become a reality. I'm currently long in Marathon Oil (MRO), because much of their business is refining, not production, and they are less effected by the daily price of oil.

After trying to profit from the short-term downturn, I plan to go long in oil, whether in the ETF (IXC) or an individual company. After correcting in the near term, black gold will shine in the future.