When Bubbles Pop (or Lose just a little Hot Air)

Coal stocks, which I have identified as overheated for a while (but thankfully didn't short), all crashed yesterday as spot prices in Europe were less desirable than expected.


Here's a chart of CNX, Consol Energy, a huge coal producer in Appalachia:


Here's JRCC, truly a joke - it's a coal company that's losing money right now. Still, that hasn't stopped it from going from $3 to $60 over the past year:



Lastly, this is KOL, the coal ETF - so when an ETF declines 10%, you know that the industry is getting crushed.
Earlier this week when I had some fresh funds (which I eventually put into CIT for a profitable trade), I was checking out JRCC $50 july puts when the stock was around $57.50... and I talked myself out of them because I didn't expect a move that big. Though nine times out of ten (if not more) that $2 options contract would have been a wasted lottery ticket, it would have panned out nicely this time.

I haven't stayed on top of the coal market enough to speak more specifically than I have just done, but the stocks above demonstrate the power of bubble-deflation. Especially in the case of JRCC, a company with no earnings, it's astronomical price increase has been because of complete fabrication and speculation, and it should all come crashing down. CNX is a solid company, but it too has enjoyed a massive price increase because of tightening worldwide coal supplies.

The thing that makes coal from different from oil is that there's no talk of "peak coal" - we know that we have hundreds of years of supply left. Getting it out of the ground in a timely fashion can be challenging, as big trucks and tires are in short supply, but I'd have to believe that the CEOs, especially of companies like JRCC, know that this heyday will end sometime, probably in the not-too-distant future.

Introducing Two New Paper Pprtfolios

First, my apologies for the delay between new posts. This week featured 3 midterm exams, so I had to tend to the responsibilities of being a student.


I've created two new paper portfolios on UpDown.com - the StudentStocks Fund and the StudentStocks Commodities Account.

The Fund will feature short-, mid- and long-term plays on valuations and fundamentals. I'm assembling the portfolio as I write this, so when an initial makeup is structured, I'll post the components.

The commodities account is a trading account, as I try to exploit (gamble/guess) the movement of commodities. Right now, I own DUG (ultrashort oil and gas), and have shorted ConocoPhillips, KOL (Coal ETF), CNX (a coal producer), GDX (Gold Producers) and GLD (a gold ETF).

So i'm currently betting on a pop/deflation of the current energy bubble. As prices swing from high to low, I'll change sides of positions.

I plan to update performance from both accounts approximately weekly; hopefully, I'll produce some good, tradeable ideas for readers.

UpDown.com is a free paper-trading site where you can earn real money. If you're interested in opening an account, email me!



"I trade with TradeKing: $4.95 stock and options trades, plus lots of tools. It's simply the best way to invest. Click here to find out more."

A Slew of Stocks - Tech, Banks, Coal, and More.

Well, let's hope I don't, but last time I wrote about the prospects of a strong opening/daily performance, the market didn't perform positively.

However, once again, futures are up after a positive sessions in Europe (on Monday) and in Asia (on Tuesday).

I'm hoping for a couple pops on stocks I personally own; over the weekend, both Microsoft and Crocs received positive writeups in Barron's. (I own MSFT calls and CROX shares). Also, I'm long VIX puts and the VIX price has been falling as the market makes small (1%) positive moves. Also, in another post, someone reported that bank shares were up overseas; I'm hoping that bodes well for my CFC stock.

To substantiate this post with something other than personal investments most of you don't care about, I'll write about a bearish idea I have (and have executed in a paper account).

Coal stocks were sitting at 52-week highs before a downgrade by Goldman on Friday. On Wednesday, I discussed a potential trade in shorting coal with my father (who is a registered investment adviser). He discouraged the idea, so I didn't do anything immediately in any real-money account, but in my paper account at UpDown.com (more on that site later) I shorted both CNX (Consol Energy) and KOL (the new coal ETF).

My reasoning is thus: extraordinary circumstances have caused a temporary bubble in coal demand. Snowstorms in China and floods in Australia caused production to cease from many mines, and a combination of legitimate supply concerns and speculative fears drove the price of coal skyward.

There's one problem with coal getting this expensive this fast - there's so much of it in the ground. Unlike oil, which might have 50-100 years left, or natural gas, with a slightly longer timeframe, it's common knowledge that there are hundreds, if not thousands, of years of coal consumption left in the ground.

According to simple economic theory, what happens when the price of a good increases? Producer surplus increases, and producers become even more motivated to bring goods to market. As they record huge profits (as they may in the coming quarters), coal producers will surely ramp up production.

Then, when the snow melts, the waters retreat, and the coal dust settles, there will be more production capacity than there will be demand.

Big coal companies like CNX are trading at valuations of about 50-70x TTM earnings and 15x forward earnings (which take into account higher prices). But if prices fall (or even stabilize), these valuations will be unjustifiable. Look at big oil/gas companies - Exxon, Chevron, Conoco, Marathon, BP, and most others trade at multiples of less than 10.

So when the coal companies tanked Friday, I made nice 5% one-day returns on my newly-shorted shares. If only I would have done it with real money.

***Note: UpDown.com is a site I recently discovered. I have been using it for less than a month (so have not been eligible for payment), but here's how it works: you beat the S&P or write highly-recommended reviews, and you get paid. If anyone is interested in joining, just message me.

"I trade with TradeKing: $4.95 stock and options trades, plus lots of tools. It's simply the best way to invest. Click here to find out more."