I apologize for the lack of updates; I have been very busy with school, work, and enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday.
During the coming week I'll post a few new things. I'll feature:
I don't closely follow Baidu.com simply because it's valuation is too high for me, but...
If i had to say, based on Amazon's earnings, there's a bigger chance of a decline than a big pop after tonight's earnings.
There's so much speculation already priced into BIDU that a on-target or modest positive surprise probably won't do much to prop up the stock's lofty price. However, a miss could be devastating.
I'm going to start trying to predict earnings on stocks I actually know about; Baidu is not one of those. However, I'll try to predict some movement. If it absolutely blows out results and raises estimates, I don't see more than a 10% increase within the next week. However, if it is on-par or disappoints, a 30% haircut isn't unfathomable.
One prediction: Microsoft will come in well today, because of Halo 3, Xbox 360 sales, and favorable exchange rates.
I published an analysis of Heelys (HLYS) as my blog was in its infancy... about one month ago now.
Over the past month, Heelys' shares did little of anyting - they teetered around in the low $8's, trading up or down a dime every day.
However, on Friday, Heely's shares jumped after they released their Spring 2008 lineup of shoes.
The stock was up 16%, a huge jump compared to the basically-flat performance over the past two months. I don't expect the stock to hold all of it's gains from Friday simply because it was such a dramatic pop on non-major news.
However, I still find Heely's as attractive as I did a month ago. Heres are some data (provided by Yahoo! finance) that demonstrates some of the reasons why I still love Heelys:
| Share Statistics | |
| Average Volume (3 month)3: | 606,689 |
| Average Volume (10 day)3: | 496,433 |
| Shares Outstanding6: | 27.06M |
| Float: | 17.31M |
| % Held by Insiders4: | 33.52% |
| % Held by Institutions4: | 43.70% |
| Shares Short (as of 25-Sep-07)3: | 2.35M |
| Short Ratio (as of 25-Sep-07)3: | 9.6 |
| Short % of Float (as of 25-Sep-07)3: | 28.90% |
| Shares Short (prior month)3: | 2.43M |
I am not a fan of Jim Cramer's mad money show. I have to credit him for being a great investor during his hedge fund days, but he has been reduced to a cheerleader on his television show.
Take, for example, what he said on his show just yesterday. Here is a direct excerpt from the TheStreet.com writeup about the October 10th show:
"At this point you have a duty to yourself and a duty to your wealth," Cramer said, "never to take financial advice from anyone who doesn't recommend Google." Analysts that knock Google can only be so wrong about a stock for so long before admitting they're wrong, he said, and it's time for investors to stop paying attention to the bears.
Cramer said his price target for Google has always been lower than where he actually thinks it's going to go.
Cramer then raised his price target to $750. "This is a total and unequivocal lowball estimate," Cramer said.
This estimate might seem overly exuberant, but Cramer believes it's based on genuine arithmetic. If Google earns $20 a share next year and continues its trend of 30% growth, it should hit $750. He then said that a nonconservative but rational price estimate would be $900.
As I stated in my last post, I currently have carpal tunnel (or some similar injury) so I can't type at length right now. But I wanted to update on some of my recent happenings:
I bought some Vonage (VN) at $1.00. It was up $.12 today, to $1.15. I think it's both a decent long term prospect, and i'm playing the bounce. If it continues upward quickly, I may dump and profit-take.
Our old friend Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) was interestingly up 25% out of nowhere today. Though I'm long, I suspect today's gain was due to a short squeeze, and may be short lived. But I hope I'm wrong.
I also purchased some Pantry (PTRY). Its stock has been up like an unbelievable 1000% or something over the last few years; I read lots of articles about it maybe six months ago. Now, it's down off of its 52-week high of 60, and only a couple bucks off of its low, and at a P/E of 13, this growth stock is now looking cheap.
I also picked up just once contract of November Calls for Nutrisystem (NTRI). They're the company that runs ads with Dan Marino and other jocks, with the pre-made food. They missed earnings and revised downward a little bit, and the stock fell 33%. It is an overreaction, to a growing brand, and I'm looking for both a bounce and a long-term gain.
Lastly, I'm currently long some ConocoPhillips (COP) puts. The company has already moved significantly, and the options are in the money. If the price of oil eases a little, it could drop like a rock. If oil keeps facing resistance at $80, I'm going to profit-take soon... I don't want to be blindsided by a hurricane or Iranian air strike that causes oil to go to $100/barrel.
That's all for now,
Stephen
P.S> bookmark this site!
Other than the huge rate cut, what else has been in the investment news every day lately? The answer is the increasing price of oil. Even as the stock market rallied through the end of the week, the price of oil kept rising, hitting a all-time actual dollar (non-inflation-adjusted) high, before losing a little ground in the little of the week.
There's a few things causing this high price; MidEast instability, hurricanes in the Atlantic, and some supply/demand issues in the United States. However, I feel as though oil (and oil stocks) are currently overpriced, and are set to correct as soon as the price of oil does.
Sure, predicting a peak is difficult, but I think that you don't have to be exactly right to profit off of this current oil bubble. As the chart below (of Exxon [XOM]) demonstrates, the stock's price is quite volitile and moves quickly and significantly as the price of oil changes.
Now here's a chart of the price of oil, over approximately the same period:
The correlation is obvious, and consistent. Also, on the chart of the price of oil, you can see how the current price run-up has increased volume, and therefore, speculation.
On Exxon's chart, you can see how as the price of oil declined earlier in the summer, the stock lost about 15% of its value in a rather quick period. That's exactly the decline that I foresee happening soon, and that I aim to profit from.
In the next week, I think the price of oil may stay steady; there's a few areas in the tropics that may turn into storms, which always cause jitters and cause the price of energy to rise. However, summer driving season is now over, and as gasoline prices rise to reflect the current price of oil, people will be further discouraged from driving, decreasing demand.
So, as I feel as though the price of oil is going to flatten and drop (it may already be happening now, as the price was down marginally on Friday the 21st), I'm going to try to initiate a short position in a big oil producer, or just buy some put options. There's lots of companies that I could see this working for: Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are some names that come to mind. Also, iShares has an ETF made up of lots of oil companies with the symbol IXC - it may be an option to get into the general market without the risk associated with a specific company.
Overall, I think that the price of oil is going to continue to rise in the long term, until alternative energies become a reality. I'm currently long in Marathon Oil (MRO), because much of their business is refining, not production, and they are less effected by the daily price of oil.
After trying to profit from the short-term downturn, I plan to go long in oil, whether in the ETF (IXC) or an individual company. After correcting in the near term, black gold will shine in the future.
For a fun, lighthearted post, I'm going to make some far-fetched (bordering on ridiculous) speculations about the possibilities of movement in Hovnanian (HOV) share price in the next few days.
Wild Scenario 1:
Hovnanian trades flat in early trading tomorrow. At 2:30 tomorrow afternoon, the Fed announces that they are cutting interest rats by 50 basis points. Hovnanian is up 13% in the past two sessions and is still feeling the effects of the strong weekend sales. It immediately jumps 10%, along with the rest of the homebuilders, as well as the mortgage companies and entire financial industry in general. After this move to $12.50 or $13, shorts react to cover their positions to preserve gains from trades at $15, and the short squeeze propels the price higher. Hovnanian closes at $14, posting a 20% daily gain based on a chain reaction of good news and trading nuances.
Wild Scenerio 2:
The Fed keeps interest rates steady due to inflationary fears, disappointing the market. Hovnanian, having recently sold off lots of its inventory at a steep discount, falls back to $9 as the financial and homebuilding sectors crash.
Mild Scenerio 3:
The Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, with language that implies that further cuts could cautiously be made in the future, depending on continuing economic circumstances. The market is flat, unimpressed by the cut but appeased by the wording.
DISCLAIMER: This was a fun little "what-if." But it is in NO WAY intended to be a realistic analysis of expectations of things to come. Invest, don't gamble. I'm in it for the long term. Don't take anything in this post as anything remotely resembling financial advice, recommendations, or analysis.
I just found this little write-up:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20810847
Two things:
1. Apparently, the sale went well, at least in some regions. Like I said in the analysis, I think that will be good, at least in the short term.
2. Also, they said that they would release official sales figures Tuesday. Coupled with the Fed meeting, Tuesday will probably be a make-or-break day for Hovnanian, depending on the news.
It's going to be a wild week... like I said before, I like the long term prospects of the company; the short term is too unpredictable and risky.
The housing bubble has been one of the most talked-about topics over the past year. Due to low interest rates and lots of individual and corporate speculation, housing prices artificially blossomed right after the turn of the millennium. As a homebuilder, Hovnanian (HOV) benefited from this trend. I have a chart below in the article, and take a look at it; the "stock price" is my approximate average yearly price based on real monthly close price over the past 10 years. As you can see, Hovnanian's stock enjoyed an incredible increase in the years up until July of 2005, when it had a monthly close of $70. The stock was trading in the $3-5/share range in the late 1990s, and if you had timed the low precisely, you could have purchased shares for $2.75 each in May 2000, scoring yourself a 25-bagger if you had timed the low and high precisely. (That's unrealistic, and not the point of this article. But in doing the research for this analysis, those were some interesting statistics I sorted through). Fundamentally, Hovnanian is very cheap right now. I can't do this analysis based on P/E, because Hovnanian is currently losing money (as homebuilders regularly do during the negative parts of the housing cycles). Plus, according to lots of professional, successful analysts, price to book value is a much better indicator of true company worth. Below is a chart plotting my approximate average yearly share price versus a mathmatical function of the yearly price/book value ratio. (Price data was obtained at finance.yahoo.com, while price/book ratios were found at Morningstar.com.) ((Book Value x 4)/1.6)^2. The formula allowed the data to be comparable on the same graph. If you'd like a further explanation, click here to download a short explanation in microsoft-word format. My point is, the share price of Hovnanian has closely followed its book valuation over its history. However, today represents its lowest price/book ratio in the 10-year statistical history, by far. Here is the history, in one-year intervals: 
The formula that I used to create a chart that exemplified my point was:
| Year | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 |
| Price/Book | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | TTM |
| 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
Youcan see that the price/book value is inflated in a great (overvalued/bubble) housing market, while depressed in a tough housing market. However, even during the bottom of the previous housing cycle in the late 1990's, the lowest price/book ratio Hovnanian had was 0.6. Today, that ratio is 0.4. That number is one-third lower than the previous low, which is statistically significant; if the stock was trading at a 0.6 book value today, it would be over $16/share.
So, strictly on valuation, I think that Hovnanian is currently looking fundamentally cheap. However, I think that there are other reasons why Hovnanian is attractive right now. The company does business in at least 19 states, with multiple markets within most states. They create housing developments, but also will build one of their housing plans on an individually-owned lot. This diversified business model will, I believe, help to cushion the effect of this housing bust. Yes, Hovnanian is exposed in some of the worst markets, like Florida and California, where housing is expensive and speculation was rampant. However, it also has operations in communities right around me in Western Pennsylvania, where housing prices are steady, or even increasing.
Hovnanian has already cut many of its losses, writing down land and options in some of the most expensive, volatile markets. I'm not going to naively predict a full housing recovery in the near term, but I believe that Hovnanian has already accounted for many of its liabilities.
Plus, two short-term events could positively affect Hovnanian's business.
First, the "Sale of the Century," a three-day event this past weekend that included price slashes of up to 20% on Hovnanian homes, could generate lots of cash, allowing the company to keep operating normally while removing some of its financial obligations. Though a deeply-discounted home will obviously not yield as much as a full-price home, right now I think it's important for Hovnanian to unload lots of the homes and land that they currently have to pay to maintain. An important feature of the sale is that many of the less-expensive properties will now fall below the price cutoff of a jumbo-mortgage, allowing buyers access to more affordable rates, especially because the lending market has tightened.
Second, the result of the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday will surely affect Hovnanian. Surely, a cut will be beneficial, allowing freer access to capital for all. I think that the general market reaction is going to be more unpredictable; it currently seems like either a 25- or 50-basis point cut can be the right or wrong decision. However, I think that the news of any cut, which should occur, will at least be a symbolic gesture that will help restore some confidence.
I have no idea when the bottom of the housing market, and stocks like Hovnanian, will occur. Personally, I initiated a long position in Hovnanian around $15/share, when I thought it was cheap; it's 52-week high is around $40. However, I have no idea if $10 a few days ago was HOV's bottom (that's the least likely scenario), or if it may fall back to $10, or $8, or even less in the coming months or years. However, I think that Hovnanian has the fundamentals to survive this bust; even if it becomes more troubled than it is, I can see a large bank or investor not allowing the company to go out of business.
Hovnanian was probably overvalued at $70 when the housing market was at its over-inflated peak, but I don't think it's a $10 stock either. Based on a rough average price/book valuation of 1.5, that translates to a stock that would be $40 based on today's book value. Even if that estimate is high, it's clear that Hovnanian is clearly NOT a $10 stock.
I don't give financial advice, but if I did, I would not recommend getting into this stock tomorrow morning in anticipation of good news concerning the sale and the Fed. Those are two short-term good-news injections that may temporarily raise the stock price. However, I think the big picture is more important; Hovnanian is trading at a historic low, both in terms of actual price AND valuation, and as the housing market recovers, in 1, 2, or 5 years, Hovnanian's share price should mirror the change.
Disclosure: Author is long HOV.
The Dow was pleasantly up 130 points today, along with an almost 1% gain in the S&P 500 and a more modest 1/3% gain for the NASDAQ. The Dow was lead by Countrywide Financial, the struggling mortgage company. Today they announced that they secured an additional 12 billion dollars in financing, allowing the company to basically keep its doors open.
McDonalds was also up very strongly, continuing a multiple-session rally. To be honest, I was thinking about buying them a week ago at 48, but felt like waiting because I thought they may be overvalued... now I am uncomfortable buying at the current level. However, they just raised their dividend by 50%, adding valuation to the shares.
In my portfolio, Sun Microsystems continued its rally to close up another 3%. Marathon Oil was also strong today because of higher energy prices. Electronic Arts was up a few percent, as was CIT, a financial company that has nothing to do with subprime lending that was hurt by the financial crash during the early subprime crisis.
Heelys declined, but that's a long term play, so I'm not worried. My tiny position in BRLC, arguably the worst short-term decision I've ever made, fell additionally in the open market today after being down 25% after-hours today. However, I went with my investing instincts and doubled my position today, lowering my cost. Once again, I think this stock is super risky, but for dumb reasons; it's a solid company, but day traders and short sellers really manipulate the price and make it trade irrationally. The earnings for this year were $.48/share; it's now less than a 10 P/E company... and for such a high-growth company, I'm willing to take the risk, because BRLC shouldn't stay at this valuation once it starts behaving rationally again.
Right now, I've got September calls in Harley Davidson (HOG) and Abercrombie (ANF). Abercrombie was up nicely today, and hopefully I'll be able to get out of those profitably (I bought the contracts a few weeks ago, and the stock was marginally down for the time in between the purchase and now). HOG is simply a play on the utter destruction of that stock over the past few sessions; they altered guidance, and shares fell almost 20%. I'm hoping the price stabilizes, and I can make a small short-term gain.
Edit: Almost forgot about my new interesting little company, The Soyo Group (SOYO.OB). Yes, it's traded over the counter, but its an established company; it used to focus on making motherboards for certain gaming computers, but now it makes the most popular LCD at the 24 inch size with a whopping 50% of market share; check out the article here.
They're making money, which is very impressive for such a little company. They have big plans for the future; they're supposed to start making huge-screen HD TV's under the brand name Honeywell for 2008.
I bought a tiny position for $.56 yesterday; it closed at $.71. I was surprised by the huge jump on no news, and I'm sure its going to give up its gains in the next few sessions. But this is going to be on my long-term radar; if they can continue to grow, while producing good product, this could be a great long-term play. Look past the penny-stock assumptions; it's a real, established company that's turning a profit, not some pump-and-dump scheme like other comparably-priced offerings.
I'm glad that my risky position in BRLC was very limited. When it reported earnings today, the company pretty much matched this quarter's earnings but revised downward for the year.
The stock, which is known for volatility, dropped 25% afterhours. I think that that drop is an overreaction, and it will hopefully open higher tomorrow.
Long term, the company is fundamentally fine, in my opinion. In the earnings report, they came in at $.48/share for this year's earnings. As a $5 stock, as it's currently priced, it's trading at just a 10 P/E. The freak-out sell-off seems a little extreme, so hopefully, for investors with bigger positions than me, it will recover in the short term. However, I have no doubts that my investment will pay off in the long term; I buy for the future.
Elsewhere, the market ended flat as oil topped $80/barrel, after being up for most of the day.
I'll post another stock analysis soon - I've gotten too caught up caring about BRLC soon, instead of just letting it run its crazy course in the short term.
Early this morning BRLC announced that they would indeed be reporting earnings today, after pushing it back yesterday. Shares were up 5% in early market trading, but have fallen flat by the time I'm posting this (1130 EST).
If they report earnings this afternoon, I still believe the earnings will meet or exceed expectations, so I'm hoping this play will pay off over the next few sessions. Like I said before, I think it's a great company in a great industry for the current economic conditions.
Obviously none of my posts are supposed to be acted upon, but I would advise against entering BRLC at this point in time. If the company reports well and the stock jumps a dollar, there's still plenty of long-term upside left. But, even though I am long in BRLC, I wouldn't be surprised if the missed earnings or re-delayed or something else happened that caused the price to collapse.
That's all for now; as of post time, the NASDAQ is up a half-percent and the other indexes are following.
| Revenue Est | Current Qtr Jun-07 | Next Qtr Sep-07 | Current Year Jun-07 | Next Year Jun-08 |
| Avg. Estimate | 198.11M | 256.58M | 690.47M | 1.27B |
| No. of Analysts | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Low Estimate | 195.00M | 228.64M | 687.36M | 1.12B |
| High Estimate | 207.72M | 270.70M | 700.08M | 1.54B |
| Year Ago Sales | 59.81M | 87.02M | 192.99M | 690.47M |
| Sales Growth (year/est) | 231.3% | 194.9% | 257.8% | 84.5% |
Following Friday's fiasco, today's trading began unpredictably. Futures began positive, then leveled off. During the course of the day, the markets swung up and down: the Dow traded in a range of 150 points, ending the day up marginally, while the Nasdaq was down almost 1% at one point, and ended with a loss of one-quarter percent. The S%P 500 recovered from a 1% deficit to close almost unchanged.
There were some movers today:
What will trading on Monday, September 10th be like? It's not certain, but lots of indicators are pointing to another day of selling. Asian markets were down during their sessions, and the market could likely keep reacting to the unfortunate economic news from Friday. Plus, there is now speculation that the Fed may not cut rates during its meeting this month, because of fears of uncontrollable inflation.
I think it's going to be a wild day. But, who knows, the indexes might end up flat for the day. Some stocks I'm personally going to be watching:
Apple (AAPL), still reeling from the negative opinions stemming from its price cuts and new product line, has lost almost 10% of its share value over the last few days of trading. I think it will continue slipping today, but it also might hit a bottom.
Countrywide (CFC) announced on Friday that it will be cutting approximately another 12,000 jobs.
Homebuilders (in particular, I own Hovnanian (HOV). As a sector, they posted major losses on friday, mostly because of the weak economic data. A rate cut could really help homebuilders, so if speculation is positive (or an early rate cut occurs) they could move significantly.
That's all for now; check back later for daily post-close wrapups every day, plus insight into the market and individual companies. Subscribe to my blog, or just bookmark it!
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Heelys (HLYS)
The Heelys shoe is a very hot product for children spanning a broad age range. You have undoubtedly already seen children zooming around on them in the mall or on the street. The shoe is certainly “trendy,” which always poses a risk to the stock’s value as the fad becomes outdated and unfashionable. However, just as Crocs addressed the same concerns, I believe that Heelys will weather the storm and emerge a strong company.
My primary reason for confidence in the brand is the practicality of the product. Unlike most fashion hits, Heelys is not solely based on style (in Heelys’ case, the wheel that makes its shoes unique). First and foremost, a pair of Heelys IS a pair of shoes – the wearer can walk in the shoes just as easily as he can choose to glide. In fact, Heelys recently released a shoe without a wheel, asserting its position as a general footwear company.
Heelys had its initial public offering last year, with shares fetching around $30. By February 2007, shares topped $40. However, after that point, the value slowly declined, possibly as investors reassessed the true value of the niche brand. In the beginning of August 2007, Heelys was trading around $22 per share, when third quarter earnings projections were negatively adjusted to reflect a growing inventory at retailers. Shares were demolished, dipping to $12 that day, losing almost 50 percent of their value. Since then, shares have steadily declined, hitting an all-time low of $8.10 on Monday, September 10th.
Here's a picture of the chart over the last month and a half, and it isn't pretty:
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
However, when I look at this chart, I see opportunity.
Heelys is a fundamentally solid company. Here are some of its noteworthy fundamentals, obtained at finance.yahoo.com:
| VALUATION MEASURES |
| Market Cap (intraday)6: | 226.78M |
| Enterprise Value (9-Sep-07)3: | 173.71M |
| Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): | 5.05 |
| Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) 1: | 6.60 |
| PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): | 0.55 |
| Price/Sales (ttm): | 0.88 |
| Price/Book (mrq): | 2.03 |
| Profitability | |
| Profit Margin (ttm): | 16.65% |
| Operating Margin (ttm): | 25.34% |
| Management Effectiveness | |
| Return on Assets (ttm): | 54.24% |
| Return on Equity (ttm): | 70.06% |
| Balance Sheet | |
| Total Cash (mrq): | 53.07M |
| Total Cash Per Share (mrq): | 1.961 |
| Total Debt (mrq): | 0 |
I italicized some important indicators, detailed here:
The famous heeled shoes represent over 90% of Heelys sales, which is obviously why investment is the company is risky. They are currently trying to launch an apparel line to diversify their product lineup. If successful, it will stabilize the company while adding revenue and profit.
Another interesting thought is the possibility that Heelys could be absorbed into a larger apparel company. Since it is a small company that currently has one unique and popular product, it wouldn't be unfathomable for a company like Nike or Adidas to acquire them. There is currently NO suggestion of this, but it's not a ridiculous statement. If bought out, shares would clearly fetch more than their current value.
I have a small personal position in Heelys; I entered the stock after the big declines, and am now marginally down on my investment. However, I am confident that even if Heelys shares slip further in the immediate, the company has a solid foundation, and is currently drastically undervalued.
In conclusion, Heelys is a fundamentally solid company that is going through a rough time. The product that they sell still has no direct competitor, and it is a great product: It is both practical (a fully-functioning shoe) and enjoyable (as the wheel provides entertainment value, like a toy). Since the product is a shoe, and growing children are the market, kids that wear Heelys will outgrow their shoes, and, seemingly satisfied, will ask for more. Overall, they have a tiny fraction of the shoe market, and have plenty of room to grow, especially as they expand traditional offerings and enter the apparel market.
I think the chance of Heelys completely ceasing to exist as a company, i.e. going bankrupt, is practically zero. It has no debt to pay off, and inventory is tied to retailers, not the company itself. Even if it stops selling shoes, it has no long-term obligations to fulfill.
It may continue to be a tough market for Heelys, especially as it reports third-quarter earnings, which were responsible for the 50% share price decline as the new guidance was announced.
However, I feel as though the company is undervalued, and in the long run, Heelys shares will be worth much more than they are today.
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