Thursday, October 25, 2007

If I had to guess: BIDU, MSFT

I don't closely follow simply because it's valuation is too high for me, but...

If i had to say, based on Amazon's earnings, there's a bigger chance of a decline than a big pop after tonight's earnings.

There's so much speculation already priced into BIDU that a on-target or modest positive surprise probably won't do much to prop up the stock's lofty price. However, a miss could be devastating.

I'm going to start trying to predict earnings on stocks I actually know about; Baidu is not one of those. However, I'll try to predict some movement. If it absolutely blows out results and raises estimates, I don't see more than a 10% increase within the next week. However, if it is on-par or disappoints, a 30% haircut isn't unfathomable.

One prediction: Microsoft will come in well today, because of Halo 3, Xbox 360 sales, and favorable exchange rates.

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